nickel price outlook 2020

Average price of LME traded cash nickel so far this month - $7.87/lb; LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here Reports “Definitive safeguards put in place in 2019 eased that situation but imports still accounted for around 30% of the regional market in 2019. Despite the uncertainty brought by the coronavirus pandemic, nickel rebounded sharply this year from Q1 lows seen after COVID-19-related lockdown measures. Other reports you may be interested in. “Concurrently, imports from the © All content copyright 1997 - 2020 Spintelligent (PTY) Ltd,unless specified otherwise. 50 kt through the first half of 2020 before declining to 30 kt as ore supply The financial community is becoming more astute in asking, ‘Which type of nickel product do you intend to make and where do you think you can sell it?,'” he said. Following a rise in 2020, Roskill expects a continued ramp up of NPI capacity in Indonesia to feed the domestic stainless steel industry, plus rising exports to supply mills in China. However, challenges at three new HPAL complexes in Indonesia will progressively derail their commissioning schedules, says Wood Mackenzie. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence. This “For now, we maintain our outlook for 22 kt nickel production at Vale’s VNC HPAL (high pressure acid leach) operation in New Caledonia in 2020. Speaking with INN, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analyst Greg Miller said that all things considered, nickel has outperformed expectations in 2020. becomes tighter. “However, with Tsingshan’s intent to add a struggle to arrange offtake for any of its output. For 2020, nickel stockpiles held in LME approved warehouses started the year at 150,690 tonnes and finished at 246,708 tonnes. Europe will confirm anti-dumping duties on Average price of LME traded cash nickel so far this month - $7.87/lb; LME nickel … The new duties would prevent this happening, leaving a big question mark over whether Tsingshan will be able to increase output at all,” concludes Mitchell. Raw material sales prices sharply down overall: 26% for manganese ore and -17% for ferronickel; conversely, very strong growth in the price of nickel ore (+35%). Nickel price news. Nickel inventory at the London Metals Exchange [LME] was slightly higher than last … Following a very volatile year in 2020, they don’t expect the nickel price to fully recovery until 2022. Nickel prices are known for its high volatility, and it has exhibited a boom/bust cycle through the years. Combined with ore stocks already For 2020, nickel stockpiles held in LME approved warehouses started the year at 150,690 tonnes and finished at 246,708 tonnes. Get the latest information about companies associated with Nickel Investing Delivered directly to your inbox. “On the presumption that Obsidian produces SINGAPORE, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Copper prices fell on Friday, as investors … prove inconsequential.”. Gardner also pointed to financing as a big hurdle for junior miners. Please remember that by requesting an investor kit, you are giving permission for those companies to contact you using whatever contact information you provide. In November 2020, the price of one metric ton of nickel stood at some 15,807.73 U.S. dollars. Fastmarkets’ analysts forecast an average London Metal Exchange nickel cash price of $16,375 per tonne in 2020, an increase of 20.4% from a forecast average price of $13,603 per tonne this year. Other signals also point upwards: Chinese NPI... 30 October 2020. 4.1 Global Foam Nickel Sales Market Share by Type (2015-2020) 4.2 Global Foam Nickel Revenue Market Share by Type (2015-2020) 4.3 Global Foam Nickel Price Market Share by Type (2015-2020) 4.4 Global Foam Nickel Market Share by Price Tier (2015-2020): Low-End, Mid-Range and High-End 5 Global Foam Nickel Historic Market Analysis by Application “However, output may decrease from February-March once the company completes its review of the facility … “But one saving grace and potential advantage for some of the juniors could come from the opportunity through positive environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials that their projects may offer. “Similarly, Taiwan will have to find new “Thus, between them, these two operations could increase the availability to battery chemicals streams of nickel in MHP by 20-25 kt in 2020. Perseus Mining pours first gold at Yaouré ahead of schedule, Kodal Minerals acquires Fatou gold project, AngloGold Ashanti completes sale of entire interests of Sadiola Mine, Natural graphite production expected to grow by 7.6% in 2021, Top legal issues for the South African mining sector in 2021, HPAL – plants come and go while delays mount in Indonesia, Chinese nickel pig iron (NPI) stutters as Indonesian NPI expands rapidly, Indonesian stainless output stalls… and may even fall, European stainless rebounds as imports from Asia are warned off. Many analysts thought nickel would have a quiet 2019, but its year turned out to be stellar. a challenge. By selecting company or companies above, you are giving consent to receive communication from those companies using the contact information you provide. Miller agreed, saying that from a battery perspective, alongside the ramp up of new projects, ensuring the ESG credentials of new supply coming to market in 2021 and beyond is one of the biggest challenges the industry faces. Fastmarkets’ analysts forecast an average London Metal Exchange nickel cash price of $16,375 per tonne in 2020, an increase of 20.4% from a forecast average price of $13,603 per tonne this year. The outlook for cobalt and nickel, along with lithium, is being transformed by the electric vehicle (EV) revolution. It's Tuesday. And remember you can unsubscribe at any time. At the start of 2020, Roskill expected Indonesia to almost entirely dominate refined nickel supply growth. Market Drivers 6. Nickel started the year trading at US$14,070 per tonne, but plummeted to US$11,055 by March, when markets started to feel the impact of coronavirus containment measures and lockdowns. When looking at demand from the battery sector, nickel use in batteries is expected to go up, but the transition to higher-nickel cathodes will take time. because of the penalties against imports from Indonesia, while Tsingshan has For Miller, ultimately current nickel prices do not reflect the market fundamentals. Nickel prices grew by 5.7 percent in February continuing a medium-term growth. Its also used in electroplating, so that it a thin layer of nickel is laid o… As 2021 kicks off, questions remain as to whether nickel’s current price level can be sustained or has been driven purely by speculation. Macro Oils short-term outlook: November 2020. shops in Indonesia Tsingshan Indonesia and Delong Obsidian. Nickel prices surge past US$17,000/t as SHFE nickel stock fall to their lowest level since June 2019. “Greater challenges may await the three new HPAL plants in Indonesia that are scheduled to enter production in 2021,” says Mitchell. Inventories fall MOU signed to explore synergies for Bougouni lithium project, Claim to arbitration against Government of Tanzania continues, Kamoa-Kakula less than six months away from production. Click on the image below to get your complimentary sample of the 2020 Annual Metals Outlook. Cobalt Outlook 2021: Demand to Rise, Higher Price Environment Ahead, Aluminum Outlook 2021: Surplus Expected, Lower Prices Ahead, Lithium Forecast 2021: Execs Optimistic on Long-term EV Trend, Biotech Outlook 2021: IPO Craze to Continue Amid COVID-19 Recovery, Start Here! Nickel outlook 2020: Price predictions. in China is 526 kt, with monthly production levels expected to be sustained at It is anticipated that the global nickel consumption will grow at a CAGR of around 11% during 2015-2020. The outlook for Nickel across these markets is provided for the period from 2020 to 2030. The impact will extend well into 2020. Nickel prices saw little upside in the first half of 2019, but this changed in the third quarter of the year as the Indonesian government surprised the market by bringing forward its export ban on unprocessed ores from January 2022, as originally scheduled, to January 2020. Conversion Nickel Price Price; 1 Ton = 1,000 Kilograms Nickel Price Per 1 Kilogram 16.54 USD Isnt it just 5 cents in value? Despite the expected drop in NPI supply in China, the opposite is anticipated for Chinese production of nickel sulfate. And while this constitutes an increase from the current $14,000-per-tonne level, it is a far cry from the 2019 high of more than $18,000 per tonne. The improvement will come on the back of a very poor 2020. New Delhi, Dec 10 (PTI) Nickel prices rose 0.53 per cent to Rs 1,260.20 per kg in futures trade on Thursday as speculators built fresh positions on … stainless exports could fall by a further 250 kt, having already declined by an As coronavirus heightens fear of global recession, nickel prices tumble. Whether you are an accredited investor or not depends on where you live and other criteria. In comparison, in February 2016, the price of nickel was just 8,299 U.S. dollars per metric ton. We forecast production of 9 kt nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in 2020, increasing to 20 kt in 2021. Current and historical Nickel prices, stocks and monthly averages. Even so, 2020 saw investor speculation jump on hopes of increased demand from the battery sector. Elsewhere, Woodmac is expecting to see smaller production increases in Finland and Brazil. “It is still early days for the EV precursor segment, but everyone is excited by it because of the strong year-on-year growth potential,” Gardner said. In comparison, in February 2016, the price of nickel was just 8,299 U.S. dollars per metric ton. to make headway in a market where Tsingshan is now struggling to make further “However, despite the overall drop in demand, consumption by the battery sector this year has remained strong,” Anderson said. Historically, Nickel reached an all time high of 54050 in May of 2007. “While this investment is for the future, it enhances the perception that demand for batteries is strong, which is counter to the current reality caused by China’s adjustment in subsidies,” adds Mitchell. The second quarter saw the metal start a sharp rebound that ultimately led to its highest point year-to-date: US$17,650 on December 15. “However, we believe the 27% surge in EV-related “Demand is expected to recover in all sectors, but the stainless steel and battery sectors are expected to perform the best,” he said. Following a year of excess supply, Roskill forecasts that the market will remain in surplus in 2021, although it is expected to be significantly smaller than the surplus anticipated in 2020. Price Analysis 7. “In contrast, Indonesia was ramping up stainless shipments to Europe, possibly enabling Tsingshan Morowali to reach full capacity. Write CSS OR LESS and hit save. Thus, whatever happens to NPI productivity in China may ultimately Indonesia is staggering. “While commissioning will give rise to an initial production of at least a few thousand tonnes, whether it remains operational for longer is open to debate – putting that 300 kt of new production at risk. Your trusted source for investing success. The knives may be out for the country’s nascent stainless industry but the staggering potential for expansion in NPI may reduce the impact of the nickel ore export ban to a minor inconvenience. With the market expected to remain in surplus in 2021, Roskill believes the rally in the nickel price in the second half of 2020 is unlikely to be sustainable. “From a battery perspective, I think overall COVID-19 has had less impact on the industry than had originally been anticipated at the start of the pandemic,” he said. stainless flat products (FPs) – slab and hot rolled coil (HRC) – Delong will Nickel price news. As supply dwindles and demand grows in the long term, many analysts and companies expect nickel’s price to increase — but the timeline of this growth is the real question. Despite all the opportunities on the horizon for the nickel market, there are some challenges the industry could face as 2021 begins. However, there is a suggestion that if LP semis sent to China for rolling are then re-exported – and are not for sale in the Chinese market – they would not be subject to duties. However, in 2021, Woodmac is forecasting that nickel demand will strongly recover by between 9 and 10 percent to reach 2.5 million tonnes. getting the quantity of nickel that EVs will need by the mid-2020s will remain For full details go to https://investingnews.com/accredited-investor-definition/ or search for "accredited investor" in the search bar above. “The substantial growth in European EV sales in H2 in particular has surprised many, helping buoy expectations of nickel demand from the battery industry heading into 2021.”. According to our latest research report “Global Nickel Market Outlook 2020”, nickel consumption is dominated by the stainless steel sector. While it is used in the nickel coin (which is actually just 25% nickel and 75% copper), it is also used in buildings, transport, electrical power generation, medical equipment, food preparation, and mobile phones. The restart of the Indonesian nickel ore battery sector share of nickel demand is much smaller than other metals, It is even possible that some sulphate refiners will switch a portion of chemicals output back to metal production. As the year comes to a close, the Investing News Network (INN) asked analysts in the field for their thoughts on what’s ahead for the base metal. Wood Mackenzie does not expect the ramp up to 3 Mtpa to be viable in 2020. Global Nickel Industry Outlook to 2020 4. “For now, we maintain our outlook for 22 kt nickel production at Vale’s VNC HPAL (high pressure acid leach) operation in New Caledonia in 2020. export ban will mean that, once ore stocks are depleted, Chinese NPI production “But the main story for 2021 is a constrained supply-side growth increase of 1 to 1.5 percent only, given the facilities which can expand and those in decline,” Gardner said. For investors, there are a number of projects in Australia and Canada that have the potential to provide additional nickel units to the market, which will be particularly important as battery supply chains become increasingly “localized,” Miller added. By using our site you accept the terms of our cookie policy. “Alternatively, Obsidian may cast billet rather than slab and produce stainless long products (LPs). What are the biggest trends to watch in the global nickel market in 2020? “China remains the preferential location for new factories but European and US players are now cementing development plans for the near future. If confirmed – which we expect will be the case – duties could be backdated to January 2020. demand for nickel chemicals was exaggerated last year and that growth will be average 700 ktpa since mid-2018. Nickel prices crossed the US$17,500 mark on December 14 ― their highest point so far this year. “The investigation by the European Commission is due to finish in Q2 2020. Lithium prices to lift after 2021. Click here to read the previous nickel outlook. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. One of the more significant challenges will be faced by Class II producers selling product into China, according to Woodmac’s Gardner. 03 November 2020. “They need to show that there is a market for their products. “Most of this increase in demand (about 160,000 to 170,000 tonnes of it) will come from nickel in stainless steel because this is by far the single largest segment of nickel use,” Gardner said. Nickel increased 796 USD/MT or 4.81% since the beginning of 2021, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence also expects growth in Indonesian NPI supply to continue into 2021. The latest report on Nickel Based Alloys Tube Market provides a comprehensive assessment of the Nickel Based Alloys Tube world market sorting by application, type and region. For his part, Miller said nickel demand from the battery sector has continued to grow this year, albeit at a slower pace than was originally anticipated in Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s pre-COVID-19 forecasts. Read on for their predictions. Fast forward to the summer of 2019, and rumors had begun to swirl that Indonesia was planning to move the ban ahead to 2020. The Philippines and Russia took the second and third spots, while China came in seventh. If you want more than 20 investor kits, you need to make multiple requests. Obsidian may struggle Conversely, Chinese refined nickel production is forecast to fall from this year’s 785,000 tonnes to 635,000 tonnes in 2021 as NPI production falls. The LME nickel price has since moderated back below $18,000/metric ton but remains at its highest level since 2014 and sits 56% higher than June's monthly price average of $11,967/metric ton. China is effectively closed Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. What will Joe Biden’s presidency mean for Africa? The LME three-month nickel price made gains during the first two sessions of the week, recovering some of last week's losses. In the longer term, Fitch analysts maintain nickel prices will remain on a gradual uptrend over 2020-2022, as the global market remains in a deficit during that period. CTRL + SPACE for auto-complete. Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The lithium hydroxide price (delivered to China) eased by 18% in the … “EV sales were reduced by half, China’s EV sales target of 1.5 million units was derailed and this cut demand for batteries and, therefore, precursor materials, including NiSO4. “However, perhaps the speed at which Indonesian nickel pig iron (NPI) production ramped up, and resilience to the impact of COVID-19, was surprising.”. 2 hours After A Difficult 2020 For Oil, Could It Bounce Back In 2021? “We continue to see midstream/downstream commitments in the battery supply; however, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a particularly negative effect on the upstream side of the industry, where capital commitments for new projects have been reined in.”. … New Delhi, Dec 9 (PTI) Nickel prices rose 0.4 per cent to Rs 1,234.60 per kg in futures trade on Wednesday, as speculators built fresh positions on rising demand from alloy makers in the spot market. We use cookies for statistical and measurement purposes, to help improve our website and provide you with a better online experience. Wood Mackenzie’s view comes despite the impressive will decrease sharply. “We forecast Europe’s stainless melt production rate to recover in 2020, with growth of 7.5%, or 500 kt, to 7.4 Mt. Positive investor sentiment around the use of nickel in electric vehicle (EV) batteries surged, although analysts still expect demand from the battery industry to lag behind steel demand for some time. “For now, we maintain our outlook for 22 kt nickel production at Vale’s VNC HPAL (high pressure acid leach) operation in New Caledonia in 2020. However, if nickel supply becomes constrained, consumers are going to pay the price. We currently anticipate output of 500-520 kt nickel in Indonesia is a major supplier of nickel … “We previously noted that premiums for NiSO4 might come under pressure due to stronger supply. 3 Min Read. Chart via the London Metal Exchange. For Roskill’s Jack Anderson, the nickel price lived up to its volatile reputation through the year — it was able to rise from a COVID-19 low in March despite the market being in oversupply. Global nickel short-term outlook December 2020. Stay safe and have a great day! Although near-term supply and demand forecasts are cut, the long-term outlook remains intact. “We expect the market to witness another year-on-year drop in NPI supply from China as port and consumer ore stocks decline further and production remains constrained by the levels of imported ore from the Philippines, New Caledonia and other smaller producing regions,” Anderson said. When looking back at 2020, coronavirus-related measures globally brought pressure to nickel consumption, something that could not have been predicted at the start of the year. PDF 2.20 MB. This also ... Indonesia has brought forward its ban on ore exports to 2020, which is seen as long-term price bullish but may be medium-term negative. Its just about everywhere. “The recent rush to make chemicals available will become more evident this year, as some western sources also fulfil their promises to satisfy specialist product demand from the EV sector. Looking back at forecasts for 2020, Adrian Gardner, principal analyst for nickel markets at Wood Mackenzie, said demand was much more negatively affected than his firm expected when it first started to analyze the potential impact of COVID-19. Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates! Philippines will be sustained at around 30 Mt. Fastmarkets research forecast a $16,000-per-tonne base case for the LME three-month nickel price going into the first quarter of 2020. 3. ... January Price Outlook… then possible capability by the end of 2020 could be 660-800 ktpa, depending on already secured most other Southeast Asian destinations. “At the same time, First Quantum Minerals aims to switch Ravensthorpe back on, having placed it on care and maintenance in 2017. current oversupply in stainless, which is precipitating cuts this quarter. “Unfortunately, LPs are also not exempt from China’s duties on Indonesian imports. For most people who arent interested in chemistry or manufacturing, nickel doesnt really mean all that much. Although the global We have limited the number of investor kits you can request to 20. Nickel inventory at the London Metals … “Looking ahead, we believe that nickel demand from the battery sector will accelerate next year, stimulated by EV-focused policies introduced as part of ‘green’ recovery plans in Europe, strengthening demand from the EV industry in China and the changing political landscape in the US,” he said. Read the full report here. There are now two stainless steel melt Experts share their nickel outlook, from supply and demand dynamics to price predictions. “However, this decline could be more than counter-balanced by expansion in Indonesian NPI,” said Mitchell. As of December 29, the nickel spot price was USD 7.69, up from USD 7.28 last month. On the downside, the size of the LPs market is smaller and potentially unable to support its reported 1 Mtpa capacity,” adds Mitchell. “The potential future production of NPI in One benefit of this option is that Obsidian would not compete directly with Tsingshan and Delong has already added LP rolling capacity in China. This, in combination with weakening demand, led to European stainless melt output decreasing by 8% in 2019. Future nickel production is dominated by Indonesian NPI and a strong ramp up in nickel … METALS-Copper falls on weak macro outlook, 2020 surplus. While that did materialise, the unexpected and immediate mid-year downgrading in Beijing’s EV subsidy programme had a greater impact. In November 2020, the price of one metric ton of nickel stood at some 15,807.73 U.S. dollars. “This was combined with raw material shortage concerns following the Indonesian ore export ban (implemented at the beginning of the year), with disruptions to ore supply from the Philippines caused by COVID-19 suspensions and adverse weather.”. Prices for the base metal were up almost 30 percent year-to-date as of the end of December, with one of the main drivers being Indonesia’s export ban news. 31 Dec 2020: 16,607.00: 16,607.00: 16,607.00-231.00-1.37 %: 30 Dec 2020: 16,838.00: 16,838.00: 16,838.00-232.00-1.36 %: 29 Dec 2020: 17,070.00: 17,070.00: 17,070.00 All eyes will be on the Indonesian nickel market in 2020. 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